Tagged: election

President Trump

Though the tortuous process of appeals, recounts and formalities will no doubt continue for several days more, the result now seems certain; Donald J. Trump is to become the next President of the United States. When he announced his candidacy in June 2015, the reaction was one of mild amusement. By the time he won the Republican nomination in May of 2016, the amusement had turned to panic. But even at that juncture, few imagined that Trump would eventually succeed in his quixotic quest for the presidency. And yet.

This result is all the more surprising in the wake of weeks of polling suggesting that Hillary Clinton had a small but consistent lead in most swing states, something which led most analysts to predict a fairly comfortable victory. They couldn’t have been more wrong. Not only did Trump win in heavily contested states such as Florida or North Carolina, he also carried states such as Wisconsin and Michigan – both states considered ‘safe’ by the Clinton campaign. A 300+ total of electoral votes seems entirely plausible.

How did this happen? Throughout the campaign, various theories have been offered for Trump’s appeal – some economic, some sociological, some cultural. All are true to a certain extent, but Trump’s victory cannot be reduced to any of them. Perhaps the only explanation for it is that it is non-explainable. In the words of David Axelrod, a certain class of voters have uttered a ‘primal scream’ at the ballot box – a cri de coeur of rage and embitterment, channelled through the person of Donald Trump. To these voters, Trump is a symbol of resistance to everything which they oppose, and as such is worthy of the vote no matter what.

Their rage is directed at a multitude of things; feminism, immigration, sexual tolerance, intellectualism, ‘the elite.’ All of this can be summed up in a word; modernity. Donald Trump is a radical reactionary, insofar as his attitude and policies reflect a desire to take America back to a putative ‘golden age.’ Of course, this ‘golden age’ was far from golden for many – the African Americans living under Jim Crow, the women expected to abandon all aspirations and raise families, the labourers working under atrocious conditions without union rights. But – and this is the fact that won Trump the election – for a significant number of people this was a golden age. For white lower-middle class men in particular, this was a fairly blissful period, and moreover considerably preferable to modernity.

They voted to attempt to reconstruct this idealised 1950s America, and they did so in 2016 because the vestiges of it are being lost. It is no coincidence that the most fervent Trump supporters come from what might be termed ‘transition areas’ – ones which were formerly all-white, but which are slowly experiencing inward migration of African-Americans and Hispanics. Though the civil rights movement and the social changes of the 1970s/80s altered America’s landscape, there were enough enclaves of traditionalism left that voters could simply ignore the ‘winds of change.’ But when these last areas appear to be slipping away to multiculturalism and liberalism, panic sets in – the result is Donald Trump.

As such, this should inform how we – the rest of the world – react to Mr Trump’s victory. Trump has won through harnessing the rage of small-town bigots and reactionaries. He has done so by offering a vision of America inimical to modern values, and by intentionally pandering to these reactionaries. This is evidenced in his policies – from his grotesque plan to ‘ban Muslims’ from entering America, to his misinformed and economically naïve views on free trade. America has elected an emissary of parochial bigotry and suburban prejudice.

It is imperative, therefore, that we do not attempt to normalise this election. This is emphatically not ‘just another vote’, and a reality which we will have to attune ourselves to sooner rather than later. This is a fundamental alteration of America’s political climate, and a token of the ascendency of a very dangerous ideology.

The legitimacy of the vote cannot be challenged. Donald Trump is the President of the United States of America, and will remain so for the next four years at least. Attempts to contest the results, or declare them ‘rigged’, are foolhardy and childish. Furthermore, governments around the world should not attempt to shun President Trump, but must tirelessly work with him to ensure that they can influence his policy – domestically and abroad – as much as is possible. The criticism of Theresa May’s message of congratulations to Mr Trump is misplaced, albeit understandable – she has a duty to get the best deal for her citizens, and unnecessarily antagonising Trump will not get such a deal.

Areas in which foreign states can positively influence Trump include trade, defence and security. With regards the latter, Europe can (and almost certainly will) make it clear that the only loser from a breakdown of the free trade system will be the USA – if America withdraws from NAFTA, Mexican industries will just start taking orders from Germany and France. Similarly, foreign influence can be leveraged to encourage Trump to avoid provoking Iran, or attempting to ‘take the oil’ in Syria – Trump will soon come up against the limits of unilateralism, and the guiding hand of other NATO states can prevent him from taking rash steps. In all these areas, we have an obligation to work constructively with Trump’s America; if we do not, then we risk allowing a hard-right regime to run riot without any checks or balances.

But equally, the forces of enlightened liberalism must not let the people of America – and indeed the world – forget that this is an unnatural state of affairs. They must not allow Trump’s presidency to be normalised. This entails countering his divisive rhetoric vigorously and effectively. Not only must Trump’s ideology be disproven; it must be discredited and defeated conclusively. He is not right, nor is his worldview ‘just another way of viewing things.’ This fashionable relativism has no place in as serious a situation as this; we must not be afraid to decry his views as wrong, no matter how many people believe in it. Popular acclamation does not have any impact upon moral truth.

And what of 2020? Certain commentators are already attempting to mount a revisionist critique of the Hillary campaign, offering inanities about ‘appealing to the disillusioned.’ This is patently false. The white lower-middle classes didn’t vote for Trump because of specific policies; they voted because they despised modernity in general. No amount of tinkering with platforms will convince them. Fortunately, that looks unlikely to be necessary. Two demographic changes will have taken place by 2020. Firstly, America (and particularly states such as Arizona, Florida, Texas and Georgia) will have become much more diverse – this is ascribable to immigration from Latin America, as well as from Asia and the Middle East. This demographic change should put many of these states in play, just as the white middle-class population begins to plateau or decline. Secondly, millions of the ‘millennial’ generation will have grown to voting age. This generation is fundamentally inclined towards liberalism and modernity.The only risk here lies in the possibility of an ascendant right developing a ‘youth’ following; this appears unlikely, but the growth of the ‘alt-right’ over the last few years demonstrates a risk. As such, a stridently liberal voice must exist amongst the youth, one unafraid to confront alt-right and neofascist forces attempting to garner votes amongst millennials.

Work with Trump to negate his worst policies; oppose Trump whenever possible. This is the only way forward. Where it is possible to wrench a compromise from him and the GOP, do so – but do not give in to normalisation and acquiescence. Trump is presiding over a movement of people with a fundamentally wrong view of the world, and if he is greeted with silence then we will all be guilty of allowing that wrong view to become entrenched.

This is a dark moment for America and the world; the election of a racist, sexist, wilfully offensive oaf as Commander-in-Chief. But it doesn’t need to be the beginning of an apocalypse, and if Trump is opposed vocally enough then it won’t. As Shakespeare put it, “the worst is not, so long as we can say ‘This is the worst.’” As long as we keep speaking out, this is not an end, but a beginning of sorts.

Something old, something new, something borrowed, something red? The rise of Jeremy Corbyn

Three months ago, the Labour leadership race seemed like a shoo-in. It was almost inevitable that Andy Burnham, the erstwhile Education Minister and Establishment-approved choice, would sail to a comfortable victory over an otherwise unremarkable crowd. And so the slow decline of New Labour would continue.

But it appears that some people thought differently. The sudden entry of Jeremy Corbyn into the race has transformed it from an otherwise unremarkable transition process into a debate as to the nature of what Labour stands for in the 21st century. The reaction of the Labour establishment has spanned the gamut of emotions from delight to fury to disbelief to – increasingly – panic, as it becomes clear that Corbyn has a very good chance of winning the contest.

Until this year, Jeremy Corbyn was considered by most as an amusing oddity. Avuncular and bearded, he inveigled himself into a Labour safe seat (Islington North) more than thirty years ago and had spent much of that time carving out a niche for himself as an outspoken leftist indulgently tolerated by the Labour leadership. He was aware that his views precluded him from higher office, but the freedom afforded by possession of a safe seat gave him the opportunity to use his voice in Parliament to espouse various eccentric left-wing causes. Amongst these were House of Lords reform, animal rights and advocacy on behalf of the Palestinians – the bread and butter of the left.

But now we are in a position where Jeremy Corbyn may well become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? Firstly, how on earth did we get to this place? It seems that after eighteen years New Labour has finally run out of steam. The other three candidates – Burnham, Cooper and (in particular) Kendall – are products of New Labour to a man. All Oxbridge-educated and all nestled within the bosom of the Labour establishment, the ideology they espouse is in essence a restatement of Blairism with a few modifications. They are all believers in a Labour Party appealing to the middle classes and which reflects their concerns, aspirations and hopes. This ideology governed the party from 1997 to 2007 in an unadulterated form; even from 2007 to 2015 it underpinned the direction of the party.

It is hard for people born after 1995 to comprehend the magnitude of the shift from Old Labour to New Labour. Old Labour was a statist party, a party with a profound mistrust of capitalism and the private sector. It was a party which appealed to the working classes and was fundamentally focussed on creating a socialist paradise for them. In short, it was everything which Blair’s New Labour was not. Blair (correctly) realised that Old Labour was a discredited ideology, and transformed the party into a brand-new movement sharing only the name. Fundamentally it was a middle class party, and as such it modified its’ positions hugely. Out went the trade unions, and in came the private sector. Grammar schools became acceptable once more, whilst privatising the running of the NHS via PFI contracts became de rigeur.

Kendall, Cooper and Burnham were all moulded in this intellectual milieu. Cooper and Burnham were both devotees of Gordon Brown, and as such their variant of New Labour is somewhat more to the left – their opposition to tuition fees, for example. Kendall is about as orthodox a Blairite as one can be, hence her vocal championing of the private sector and her concern to market Labour as friendly towards small businesses.

However after eighteen years of New Labour, it appears that the country has tired of it. New Labour derived its’ success from selling out Old Labour’s core constituency – the working classes. Blair calculated that they had no choice but to stick with Labour, and hence ignored them completely in favour of policies clearly designed to curry favour with the middle classes. This strategy worked as long as its core assumption held true – that the working classes would always remain with Labour.

Oddly enough it was the rise of UKIP which scotched that particular myth. There was a rather paternalistic assumption amongst Labour elites that the lumpen proletariat were congenitally left-wing. What they failed to realise was that they were in fact simply populist. Whichever party offered them enough goodies, they would vote for. This precluded the Tories, and to a great extent Labour. But in UKIP the working classes found a party which seemed to speak for them. It was a party which seemed antithetical to the elites, and which offered simple solutions towards a putative ‘Great’ Britain. The working classes left Labour in droves for UKIP.

Until recently, the assumption was that UKIP was a party appealing primarily to disaffected Tories – Colonel Blimp types who still hadn’t gotten over the Napoleonic Wars or the loss of the Empire. 2015 revealed that in reality UKIP was doing hugely well in Labour strongholds. By offering an anti-elitist platform and preying on the fears of the working class, they succeeded in stripping enough Labour votes from their core constituency for Labour to fail to engage in the ultra-important swing seats that they were targeting.

This combined with the fall of Scotland. In the same manner as with UKIP, the working classes – who Labour chiefs had previously assumed would never desert the party – migrated almost en masse to the SNP. This is not for nationalistic reasons (as has been claimed by overeager SNP politicians) but because the SNP offered a credible far-left policy that outflanked Labour. For more than a decade now Scottish Labour voters have felt alienated from a London-centric party that seems foreign to them; privately educated, socially liberal and affluent. The populist SNP was able to feed off this resentment and ride to victory.

All this explains why Corbyn seems on the verge of victory. He is a representative of Old Labour par excellence. With his beard and his flat cap, he looks and sounds like a member of the working class. His rhetoric is anti-elitist and his policies are populist. Whether he’s talking about renationalising the railways, or prosecuting Tony Blair for war crimes, Jeremy Corbyn has succeeded in capturing the attention of the working classes. After almost two decades of inattention, Corbyn has managed to convince them that Labour might still speak for them.

Ironically enough, in many ways Corbyn is uncomfortably close to UKIP. Both are bitterly anti-elitist, and both Farage and Corbyn pride themselves on their accessibility and ‘common touch’ (hence the pint that seemed superglued to Farage’s hand for most of the campaign.) Their policies are also remarkably similar in many ways – both call for grand solutions and localisation as a panacea. Though there are significant differences, most obviously on Europe and immigration, these are not as serious as they are made out to be. For voters, all that is needed is a scapegoat, and they can switch between them with remarkable ease. UKIP succeeded in scapegoating immigrants and casting them as the cause of the country’s ills; Corbyn seems set to do the same with the rich. In both cases they are hugely wrong; in both cases the public will connect with the message.

The truth of the matter is that Jeremy Corbyn is not a messiah. He is a rabble-rouser who plays on peoples’ fears to peddle a brand of far-left rhetoric that was outdated in the 80s. His rise to power is indicative of his ability to feed off the fears and paranoia of the working classes, and he is able to make farcical promises through his not having to worry about the limitations imposed by the vagaries of the national finances. Jeremy Corbyn is totally unelectable and would be a disaster for the country…

…which is exactly why I (as a Conservative) am rooting for him to win.